BECsufferer
10-07 12:30 PM
I partially disagree with your analysis on markets in India. Icici and SBI are facing the problem of defaulters these days. Banks there have mimicked the model in United States and there are amny loans that had less than 10% downpayment.
I can tell you in Hyderabad that many flats in and around madhapur are upwards of 45 lakhs.
These prices will fall given the number of flats still unsold. There are amny unsold houses worth above 1 Cr and they are gonna come down.
--sri
Sri;
As i said in my note, my comments are strictly directed towards markets in North India such as Greater Mohali or Ludhiana. Their had been some instances of mega-builders pulling out of mega-commercial projects such as Mohali inter-State Bus Terminal. But on same note, recent auction of commercial land by GMADA saw prices not fore-seen by general public. As rarely does anyone in north India believes on financial or non-financial promisary notes, as we do here in USA. So for individual buyers, it all boils down to cash transaction.
My suggestion, as someone noted their is 25% appreciation of USD, is to invest in india preferbly in partnership with someone you know and can trust.
I can tell you in Hyderabad that many flats in and around madhapur are upwards of 45 lakhs.
These prices will fall given the number of flats still unsold. There are amny unsold houses worth above 1 Cr and they are gonna come down.
--sri
Sri;
As i said in my note, my comments are strictly directed towards markets in North India such as Greater Mohali or Ludhiana. Their had been some instances of mega-builders pulling out of mega-commercial projects such as Mohali inter-State Bus Terminal. But on same note, recent auction of commercial land by GMADA saw prices not fore-seen by general public. As rarely does anyone in north India believes on financial or non-financial promisary notes, as we do here in USA. So for individual buyers, it all boils down to cash transaction.
My suggestion, as someone noted their is 25% appreciation of USD, is to invest in india preferbly in partnership with someone you know and can trust.
wallpaper guitar, Jackie Fox on ass
dealsnet
06-12 12:03 AM
You are saying new OBAMA govt. in many of your postings. Are you his election agent?. This forum is not for any party affiliations. Election is yet to start. Democratic party is not officially announced their candidate. All powerful President Bush is tried hard to help immigrants. Then how come a weak person who is still fighting for a ticket can take left and right congress and senete veterans.!!!!!!
Due to the lot of noice we have done,most of the law makers know theres a community called legal immigrants, and their long waiting periods due to the outdated rules. The new OBAMA government's agenda is to take the immigration reform during his first year tenure in the ffice. Once the immigration reform took place, I am pretty sure there would be significat changes in employment based category, which drastically decrease the backlogs in all EB categories.
In addtion to that "legals are first than illegals"- OBAMA. This itself is enough for clearing off all the backlogs.
Due to the lot of noice we have done,most of the law makers know theres a community called legal immigrants, and their long waiting periods due to the outdated rules. The new OBAMA government's agenda is to take the immigration reform during his first year tenure in the ffice. Once the immigration reform took place, I am pretty sure there would be significat changes in employment based category, which drastically decrease the backlogs in all EB categories.
In addtion to that "legals are first than illegals"- OBAMA. This itself is enough for clearing off all the backlogs.
trueguy
08-27 12:48 PM
It cann't be EB3-ROW. EB3-ROW should start somewhere in 2006 hopefully.
Here is EB3 PD movement for FY 2008:
Month EB3-I EB3-ROW
Sep'2008 Unavailable Unavailable
Aug'2008 Unavailable Unavailable
Jul'2008 Unavailable Unavailable
Jun'2008 Nov01'2001 Mar01'2006
May'2008 Nov01'2001 Mar01'2006
Apr'2008 Oct01'2001 Jul01'2005
Mar'2008 Aug01'2001 Jan01'2005
Feb'2008 May08'2001 Nov01'2002
Jan'2008 May01'2001 Oct15'2002
Dec'07 May01'2001 Sep01'2002
Nov'07 Apr'22'2001 Aug01'2002
Oct'07 Apr'22'2001 Aug01'2002
Here is EB3 PD movement for FY 2008:
Month EB3-I EB3-ROW
Sep'2008 Unavailable Unavailable
Aug'2008 Unavailable Unavailable
Jul'2008 Unavailable Unavailable
Jun'2008 Nov01'2001 Mar01'2006
May'2008 Nov01'2001 Mar01'2006
Apr'2008 Oct01'2001 Jul01'2005
Mar'2008 Aug01'2001 Jan01'2005
Feb'2008 May08'2001 Nov01'2002
Jan'2008 May01'2001 Oct15'2002
Dec'07 May01'2001 Sep01'2002
Nov'07 Apr'22'2001 Aug01'2002
Oct'07 Apr'22'2001 Aug01'2002
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zoooom
07-19 06:34 PM
Sounds good.
Zooooom ?? Do you want to open the thread (please add the important points of the conversation going on this thread as your first message, so we can repeat that over and again for people who join later).
Will DO...Just gimme some time.
Zooooom ?? Do you want to open the thread (please add the important points of the conversation going on this thread as your first message, so we can repeat that over and again for people who join later).
Will DO...Just gimme some time.
more...
skdskd
01-30 05:20 PM
Question 26 Now (page 2)
26. Question on: Immigration
26. Question on: Immigration
smartboy75
09-30 02:52 AM
I've already got my GC approved in Feb. 2007.
hey wawa...
That is so strange.....Our dates also match...I too got an email on 28th September ...this is so bizzare..,,have you received the notice from USCIS ?? Since you have an aproved GC it sounds even more bizzare ...please keep me posted of any developements and I will do the same ...
hey wawa...
That is so strange.....Our dates also match...I too got an email on 28th September ...this is so bizzare..,,have you received the notice from USCIS ?? Since you have an aproved GC it sounds even more bizzare ...please keep me posted of any developements and I will do the same ...
more...
deletedUser459
06-11 11:04 PM
you're not supposed to skin that...
2010 you that the tattoos seen
gdhiren
07-15 11:27 AM
:( Can the figure $40000 be changed to something appropriate, like " at least the prevailing wage specified by DOL for the job occupation"?
Signed, in fact do we have any lawyers member here, let's sue them as well for spreading the false statements and hurting sentiments of millions.:(
Signed, in fact do we have any lawyers member here, let's sue them as well for spreading the false statements and hurting sentiments of millions.:(
more...
sledge_hammer
03-13 03:40 PM
D. INDIA EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY
Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act provides that if total demand will be insufficient to use all available numbers in a particular Employment preference category in a calendar quarter, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual “per-country” limit. It has been determined that based on the current level of demand being received, primarily by Citizenship and Immigration Services Offices, there would be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment Second preference category. As a result, numbers have once again become available to the India Employment Second preference category. The rate of number use in the Employment Second preference category will continue to be monitored, and it may be necessary to make adjustments should the level of demand increase substantially.
Does "calendar quarter" mean that only within a fiscal year unused visa numbers are made re-available, but does not spill over to the next fiscal year?
My take is that there is horizontal spill-over in unused visa numbers - correct?
Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act provides that if total demand will be insufficient to use all available numbers in a particular Employment preference category in a calendar quarter, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual “per-country” limit. It has been determined that based on the current level of demand being received, primarily by Citizenship and Immigration Services Offices, there would be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment Second preference category. As a result, numbers have once again become available to the India Employment Second preference category. The rate of number use in the Employment Second preference category will continue to be monitored, and it may be necessary to make adjustments should the level of demand increase substantially.
Does "calendar quarter" mean that only within a fiscal year unused visa numbers are made re-available, but does not spill over to the next fiscal year?
My take is that there is horizontal spill-over in unused visa numbers - correct?
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yetanotherguyinline
07-13 01:31 PM
http://bayarea.sulekha.com/events/Professional/2007/07/skilled-legal-immigrants-to-march-in-a-protest-rally.htm
more...
chaanakya
08-14 02:47 AM
When you say ..."they are suffering and its not justified".....
This is exactly what is wrong !!! Why the hell do we feel that it is unjustified?? Not only for EB3 or EB2 or anyone for that matter ?? Congress has the authority to pass laws, even something as insane as "no EB immigration for the next 20 years" or something like that. IMMIGRATION is a priviledge, NOT a birthright. India has its laws too, my son who was born here has to report every 6 months like a criminal even though he has a valid visa in India?? Is that unjustified? NO, it is the law in INdia. Students at national universities in India from foreign countries pay in excess of 100 times what an indian student pays, is that justified ? NO, it is the discretion of the UGC.
For those complaning about USCIS, do you even remember trying to pay the water bill or the telephone bill or electric bill in INdia? Those were the reasons that drove people out of the country. The US is not perfect but it has pretty generous laws and the USCIS is not perfect but it is trying. Here, if you dont get a response in 6 months, you have options to pursue this, even talk to senators and congressmen. In INdia there are murder cases that run longer than 15-20 years.
So please cut the "suffering" and "unjustified" feelings from the equation. If you are "suffering" because of immigration related issues, then that is ENTIRELY by choice.
There will be opinions. You are entitled to yours and so am I. I guess we can lay this to rest here. No point in arguing it till the end of time.
This is exactly what is wrong !!! Why the hell do we feel that it is unjustified?? Not only for EB3 or EB2 or anyone for that matter ?? Congress has the authority to pass laws, even something as insane as "no EB immigration for the next 20 years" or something like that. IMMIGRATION is a priviledge, NOT a birthright. India has its laws too, my son who was born here has to report every 6 months like a criminal even though he has a valid visa in India?? Is that unjustified? NO, it is the law in INdia. Students at national universities in India from foreign countries pay in excess of 100 times what an indian student pays, is that justified ? NO, it is the discretion of the UGC.
For those complaning about USCIS, do you even remember trying to pay the water bill or the telephone bill or electric bill in INdia? Those were the reasons that drove people out of the country. The US is not perfect but it has pretty generous laws and the USCIS is not perfect but it is trying. Here, if you dont get a response in 6 months, you have options to pursue this, even talk to senators and congressmen. In INdia there are murder cases that run longer than 15-20 years.
So please cut the "suffering" and "unjustified" feelings from the equation. If you are "suffering" because of immigration related issues, then that is ENTIRELY by choice.
There will be opinions. You are entitled to yours and so am I. I guess we can lay this to rest here. No point in arguing it till the end of time.
hot Guitar Tattoos.
NKR
01-31 01:01 PM
^^^^
I think a few hours is left to vote. so pls do now.
I think a few hours is left to vote. so pls do now.
more...
house guitar.ass.piano.drums.violin
mrdelhiite
07-12 08:27 AM
this is already being discussed here http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=6313 Please clsoe
Thanks
-M
Thanks
-M
tattoo been creating tattoos for
shreekarthik
01-31 12:43 PM
it is good indeed. but i just happened to visit aila.org and it says this news "no more labor subs" is just a rumor of the day.
can u provide a link. This rule is bad for AILA because of the loss of revenue and hence they were against it. But since this is in the "Final Rule Making" process there's not much they can do. BTW u don't need to have the I140 approved for the LC sub to go thru. U just need the labor substitution approved stamp before the rule gets published.
can u provide a link. This rule is bad for AILA because of the loss of revenue and hence they were against it. But since this is in the "Final Rule Making" process there's not much they can do. BTW u don't need to have the I140 approved for the LC sub to go thru. U just need the labor substitution approved stamp before the rule gets published.
more...
pictures UK#39;s Bass Guitar Magazine.
vasa
04-07 02:59 PM
Here's My contribution
$100
Receipt ID: 4139-5498-9511-8679
$100
Receipt ID: 4139-5498-9511-8679
dresses guitar and piano recital.
Sunx_2004
04-18 04:46 PM
that is the only way out for EB3s
Way to go JimyTomy.
For all well qualified EB-3 folks it is a good and legal way of getting out of this EB-3 India mess.
Way to go JimyTomy.
For all well qualified EB-3 folks it is a good and legal way of getting out of this EB-3 India mess.
more...
makeup Guitar tattoos?
BharatPremi
03-13 10:51 AM
Yes, I guess the slowdown will happen when it hits the 2005 mark when PERM was introducted and a lot of EB3 were converted into EB2
Yep, that's "bull period". But assuming AOS bulletin mirrors CP bulletin, it looks like USCIS has decided to play with EB2-India. According to its own process, if USCIS might be working then this bulletin was not expected. 2 things I can think of. (1)EB3-ROW (From which numbers flow to EB2 -ROW then Eb2-countries) is confirmed empty and thus EB2-ROW is empty too (2) Somehow abrupt decision. If it is no:1 then it is really good news. But if it 2 then it will be bad for EB3-India as EB3-India is the MOST suffered lot during 2002-8. and Per country limit will make it more suffered with this illegitimate forward movement of EB2-India. Let's wait for AOS bulletin.
Yep, that's "bull period". But assuming AOS bulletin mirrors CP bulletin, it looks like USCIS has decided to play with EB2-India. According to its own process, if USCIS might be working then this bulletin was not expected. 2 things I can think of. (1)EB3-ROW (From which numbers flow to EB2 -ROW then Eb2-countries) is confirmed empty and thus EB2-ROW is empty too (2) Somehow abrupt decision. If it is no:1 then it is really good news. But if it 2 then it will be bad for EB3-India as EB3-India is the MOST suffered lot during 2002-8. and Per country limit will make it more suffered with this illegitimate forward movement of EB2-India. Let's wait for AOS bulletin.
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cowboy
07-18 01:55 PM
thank
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eb3_nepa
04-18 09:22 AM
Considering that there are more than 2000 members who havent contributed yet. Even $10 per member wud mean $20K straight away. Common guys, this is tax refund season. Surely we can all send in atleast between $10 and $20. That is cheap change considering most of our life styles. Internet access costs more than that, Filling your car with a tank of regular gas costs more than that. ;)
obviously
06-14 11:47 AM
Folks!
Let us use this weekend to get on the phone and spend an average of 1 min. 20 seconds per Representative leaving voice mail messages per this script. It is absolutely easy. There can be no reason we cannot do it.
For each Immigrant In The Queue, remember, you can call, so can your wife, so can each of your kids. Get a friend to call. Get his wife, or her husband to call. 57 is pathetically low. If each of us that have called gets ONE MORE PERSON to spend a grand total of 10 Minutes leaving voicemails, we will have hit the 100 mark.
Guys, gals and other beings... this is not scary stuff. You will be 'talking' to voicemail. Time much better spent than debating the LA Lakers-Celtics game, wondering about what to eat for lunch, or debating the latest controversy thats caught your fancy.
Seriously, let the HIGH SKILLS portion of our profile come to play ... pick up the phone and call ... call now !!!!
Peace!
Let us use this weekend to get on the phone and spend an average of 1 min. 20 seconds per Representative leaving voice mail messages per this script. It is absolutely easy. There can be no reason we cannot do it.
For each Immigrant In The Queue, remember, you can call, so can your wife, so can each of your kids. Get a friend to call. Get his wife, or her husband to call. 57 is pathetically low. If each of us that have called gets ONE MORE PERSON to spend a grand total of 10 Minutes leaving voicemails, we will have hit the 100 mark.
Guys, gals and other beings... this is not scary stuff. You will be 'talking' to voicemail. Time much better spent than debating the LA Lakers-Celtics game, wondering about what to eat for lunch, or debating the latest controversy thats caught your fancy.
Seriously, let the HIGH SKILLS portion of our profile come to play ... pick up the phone and call ... call now !!!!
Peace!
thakurrajiv
07-30 12:02 PM
You can trade commodities like stocks by taking a directional bet on long term price movement. But this is what you need to consider. Stocks always trade in Spot. If you buy MSFT you own shares of Microsoft today. Although single stock futures (SSF) are available now we will not look at derivatives right now.
Commodities are traded as futures. You can buy Soy futures today for December delivery or lean hogs for dec 2010 delivery.
Under conditions of No-Arbitrage the price of the future will be the price of the spot plus storage and delivery costs. If for example 3 month LSC (Light Sweet crude) is trading on NYMEX at $60; the cost of storage and delivery is say $20 for 3 months. Then 6 month LSC should be trading at $80. But if you look at the contract it might be trading at $55.
The reason being fundamentals. The peak driving season or the hurricane season is over and heating oil season is not yet on us or by looking at weather derivatives traders are factoring in milder winter. The leader of Iran has declared he will step down from office and retire to Hawaii, the rebels in Nigeria have turned themselves in and joined a church missionary..stuff like that.
So you might believe these fundamental assumptions or you might do your own research and say that the traders are wrong and they are discounting critical factors and the price should be more. So you can go long the future and hope for an increase in price and sell the future before delivery for a profit. This is the expensive route but you will never be wiped out for sure. Price of crude may drop but will never go to zero.
Or you trade options on the futures, for example:
Borrow money (leverage) buy the call; short delta units of the future contract and invest the proceeds at the risk free rate.
If you are correct the call will end up in the money, the shorted futures will loose value but since it is �delta� units it is only a portion of the position and the invested money will earn you the risk free rate. So you make some money on the call and loose some on the hedge and net you will profit. (Hopefully to cover the transaction costs and taxes)
If you are wrong (price falls) your call will expire worth less so you are wiped out there, your short will increase in value and you will still earn the risk free rate. So although net you will loose money it will not be as much as a naked call because of delta hedging.
This is explained in very very simple terms. Each transaction step will indicate modeling prices to know if the future is priced correctly, if the option is priced correctly and if the leverage you are getting is correct. Plus modeling future price movements and expected rate of returns and the most primary thing in any transaction the �Alpha�. Source of alpha should be very clearly defined. Let me go a bit deep and include some simple math:
E[R] = Alpha + betaR + epsalon
Where E[R] is the expected return-(see statists for more on expectation functions.)
alphais the excess return
betaR is market return or what the price of the commodity does in the duration chosen. (Market betais 1)
epsalonis error term or un explained return.
(Sorry the greek symbols did not display so I wrote words)
This is a kindergarten model of modeling your alpha. As there are many variables you will use a multi variant model to figure out return. Plus as I said in my previous post you have to model jumps. Jumps are spikes of very short duration which will only be seen in a log normal price distribution. A Gaussian distribution might not be changed much because of a spike of small duration. For example if you are trading electricity and the temperature in NJ hits 110 degrees, there is going to be a spike on that day for electricity prices but this will fall as soon as temperature falls.
And the core issue of all is you need to have access to products as indicated by puddonhead plus money and leverage capacity and risk bearing capacity. As you see this is not for the faint of heart or for some one to do part time. If you are really sophisticated and can do this with good resources, fine or else my advice is stick to stocks or stock derivatives. Hedge funds have teams of quants and super computers sitting and doing this every day. They will vacuum out even the slightest of alpha out there; they will simply take your money if you enter into a wrong trade. If someone is a quant and does this for a living then if his contract allows it or if his licensing allows it legally he can do it on the side but apart from it definitely not something the retail investor should indulge in. Just invest in some ETF like GLD or USO or some commodity mutual funds at the max.
Best of luck!!
Again a great post. Just want to comment that be careful with ETF's too. Most of the ETF's are not physical commodity holders. They play in futures and OTC swap markets.
I have looked hard to find ETF's or MF's fwhich are pure commodity holders e.g gold, silver etc.I still have not found good ones. The closest I could get was some portfolio of mix of real assets and futures. Most of the ETFs are again leveraged and kind of trap for average investors.
There are a few hedge funds or big funds which might offer pure plays but those tend to have huge entry investment requirement basically making them inaccessible to individual small investors.
Commodities are traded as futures. You can buy Soy futures today for December delivery or lean hogs for dec 2010 delivery.
Under conditions of No-Arbitrage the price of the future will be the price of the spot plus storage and delivery costs. If for example 3 month LSC (Light Sweet crude) is trading on NYMEX at $60; the cost of storage and delivery is say $20 for 3 months. Then 6 month LSC should be trading at $80. But if you look at the contract it might be trading at $55.
The reason being fundamentals. The peak driving season or the hurricane season is over and heating oil season is not yet on us or by looking at weather derivatives traders are factoring in milder winter. The leader of Iran has declared he will step down from office and retire to Hawaii, the rebels in Nigeria have turned themselves in and joined a church missionary..stuff like that.
So you might believe these fundamental assumptions or you might do your own research and say that the traders are wrong and they are discounting critical factors and the price should be more. So you can go long the future and hope for an increase in price and sell the future before delivery for a profit. This is the expensive route but you will never be wiped out for sure. Price of crude may drop but will never go to zero.
Or you trade options on the futures, for example:
Borrow money (leverage) buy the call; short delta units of the future contract and invest the proceeds at the risk free rate.
If you are correct the call will end up in the money, the shorted futures will loose value but since it is �delta� units it is only a portion of the position and the invested money will earn you the risk free rate. So you make some money on the call and loose some on the hedge and net you will profit. (Hopefully to cover the transaction costs and taxes)
If you are wrong (price falls) your call will expire worth less so you are wiped out there, your short will increase in value and you will still earn the risk free rate. So although net you will loose money it will not be as much as a naked call because of delta hedging.
This is explained in very very simple terms. Each transaction step will indicate modeling prices to know if the future is priced correctly, if the option is priced correctly and if the leverage you are getting is correct. Plus modeling future price movements and expected rate of returns and the most primary thing in any transaction the �Alpha�. Source of alpha should be very clearly defined. Let me go a bit deep and include some simple math:
E[R] = Alpha + betaR + epsalon
Where E[R] is the expected return-(see statists for more on expectation functions.)
alphais the excess return
betaR is market return or what the price of the commodity does in the duration chosen. (Market betais 1)
epsalonis error term or un explained return.
(Sorry the greek symbols did not display so I wrote words)
This is a kindergarten model of modeling your alpha. As there are many variables you will use a multi variant model to figure out return. Plus as I said in my previous post you have to model jumps. Jumps are spikes of very short duration which will only be seen in a log normal price distribution. A Gaussian distribution might not be changed much because of a spike of small duration. For example if you are trading electricity and the temperature in NJ hits 110 degrees, there is going to be a spike on that day for electricity prices but this will fall as soon as temperature falls.
And the core issue of all is you need to have access to products as indicated by puddonhead plus money and leverage capacity and risk bearing capacity. As you see this is not for the faint of heart or for some one to do part time. If you are really sophisticated and can do this with good resources, fine or else my advice is stick to stocks or stock derivatives. Hedge funds have teams of quants and super computers sitting and doing this every day. They will vacuum out even the slightest of alpha out there; they will simply take your money if you enter into a wrong trade. If someone is a quant and does this for a living then if his contract allows it or if his licensing allows it legally he can do it on the side but apart from it definitely not something the retail investor should indulge in. Just invest in some ETF like GLD or USO or some commodity mutual funds at the max.
Best of luck!!
Again a great post. Just want to comment that be careful with ETF's too. Most of the ETF's are not physical commodity holders. They play in futures and OTC swap markets.
I have looked hard to find ETF's or MF's fwhich are pure commodity holders e.g gold, silver etc.I still have not found good ones. The closest I could get was some portfolio of mix of real assets and futures. Most of the ETFs are again leveraged and kind of trap for average investors.
There are a few hedge funds or big funds which might offer pure plays but those tend to have huge entry investment requirement basically making them inaccessible to individual small investors.
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